Bitcoin Myths Exposed! | Erik Voorhees and Stefan Molyneux
Bitcoin has several persistent myths about it that just refuse to die. Stefan Molyneux and Erik Voorhees dispel the myths and talk about the reality of the predominant cryptocurrency.
Erik Voorhees is the co-founder of Coinapult, worked as Director of Marketing at BitInstant, and was founder and partial owner of the Bitcoin gambling website SatoshiDice.
Bitcoin is roaring back
Bitcoin is higher for a second straight day on Tuesday, trading up 5% at $1,093 a coin as of 10:33 a.m. ET. The tw0-day win streak has tacked on about 13%, rebounding from a slump over the weekend that followed a Wall Street Journal report that the cryptocurrency's developers were threatening to set up a "hard fork," or alternative marketplace for bitcoin.
The new platform would be incompatible with the current platform, thus creating a split and two versions of the currency. That news sent bitcoin crashing 20% over the weekend to about $950 a coin, its weakest since January.
2017 has been a volatile year for the cryptocurrency.
It gained 20% in the first week of the year after soaring 120% in 2016 to become the top-performing currency for the second year in a row.
Bitcoin then crashed 35% on news that China was going to consider clamping down on trading.
But it managed to rip higher by more than 50% even in the face of several pieces of bad news.
First, China's biggest bitcoin exchanges said they were going to start charging a 0.2% fee on all transactions (previously there was no fee). Then, China's biggest exchanges said they were going to block withdrawals from trading accounts.
Still, bitcoin put in a record high of $1,327 a coin on March 10 as traders piled in ahead of the US Securities and Exchange Commission's ruling on the Winklevoss twins' bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The SEC denied the ETF, sending the price crashing by 16%. Bitcoin, however, managed to quickly recover those losses.
Two more SEC rulings are on the way, the next being March 30. Neither one is expected to pass.
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Bitcoin Price Can Climb Far Above $13,000: Factors & Trends
Clif High’s estimation that three ounces of gold would be equal to a Bitcoin in price by this time next year remains a bizarre proposition that is not impossible to achieve.
In a way, a predicted Bitcoin price rise from a meager $1180 to more than $13,000 seems attractive and the technicality of how that would be the case defies common understanding of the law of demand and supply. It could be a repeat of the 1979/1980 scenario.
This link to a historical event particularly fits in with the fact that High’s data sets have been proven accurate in other instances and his latest estimate show that Bitcoin price would be hinged on the rising price of gold – from $1206 today to about $4,800 by March next year, about a 300 percent increase.
Working it out
Between 1978 and 1979, the price of gold recorded more than 120 percent growth from $207 to $455, the highest in its history, due to high inflation because of strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution, which prompted investors to move into the metal.
By January 1980, gold hits record high at $850 per ounce though for a while as investors seek safe haven – that’s a 310 percent increase between 1978 and January 1980.
Figuring out the total amount of gold that has ever been produced is hard. However, going by rough estimates, there are approximately six bln ounces of gold available – that is 375 ounces of gold to one Bitcoin in terms of production if we are to go by the fact that about 16 mln Bitcoins have been mined so far.
Its production rate does not necessarily translate to a higher price for either even though the number of ounces to be extracted later are unknown and it is certain that there could only be a finite 4.8 mln Bitcoins more to be mined in the next 123 years according to its whitepaper.
Other strengthening factors
One Bitcoin would be harder to get than an ounce of gold even as interest in the pricing arrangement of both commodities is increasing. Though they both show the potential to become more valuable with time, the catch-up Bitcoin played recently has cast doubt on the outlook for gold as the future’s main store of value. More so, until last year, the price of gold slide for the previous three years.
Somehow, the argument that either gold is overpriced or Bitcoin is undervalued is already adding a twist to the discussion. Different opinions are being formed as the common knowledge that Bitcoin’s value has been growing as well as the understanding of its usefulness has been improving among more people from various sectors.
Coupled with its thinning supply which has been influencing its price and the fact that it could be considered advantageous over gold in several ways including cutting out shady bank practices – though its reliance on electricity and the Internet is still a key argument that has been made against it, a sudden surge could not be overruled.
More of the growing millennials who choose to look in its direction are finding Bitcoin handy and easier to relate with more than gold despite its intrinsic value, its tangibility and its record centuries of existence.
Bitcoin is decentralized, easily moved, harder to counterfeit and gets increasingly difficult to mine over time. These basic features which have been spreading more, stand to favor Bitcoin even to make its price climb far above High’s estimate of $13,000 and its market cap correlatively increase to as much as $40 bln or more in a 12-month period.
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Why Bitcoin Didn't Need an ETF to Begin With
The Bitcoin community doesn’t seem to be bothered by the US Security Exchange Commission’s decision to disapprove the Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF COIN like many analysts expected. The market’s stability after the denial of the COIN ETF led to discussions on why Bitcoin didn’t need an ETF to begin with.
Why SEC disapproved the ETF and why Bitcoin didn’t need it
Bitcoin is one of the only currencies or networks in existence which facilitates payments between two users with the absence of a mediator or a network administrator. Within Bitcoin, regulations are non-existent and manipulation-free transactions can be made, regardless of the amount or the size of the transaction.
While Bitcoin wasn’t necessarily designed to replace fiat money, it was introduced in 2009 to serve as an alternative to the global financial structure and ecosystem. Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, wanted to present a cash-like settlement network in which users aren’t required to undergo impractical and inefficient settlement processes in order to send and receive money from one another.
Over time, Bitcoin as a decentralized technology evolved, with the work of the Bitcoin Core development team as well as Bitcoin’s global and open source development team of contributors. The Bitcoin network’s hash power began to secure the network from external attacks and welcome tens of millions of new users into the network.
As Bitcoin and security expert Andreas Antonopoulos notes, the truly decentralized, transparent and secure financial network of Bitcoin is beginning to replace the financial industry and provide the general public with a low-fee and faster financial network.
Before considering the fact that hundreds of millions of dollars and potentially billions of dollars could have been poured into Bitcoin as a result of the approval of the COIN ETF, it is important to ponder the purpose of Bitcoin as a financial network. Its real purpose within the global financial frame is to allow people to make peer-to-peer payments amongst each other, not to gather large investments within a highly and tightly regulated market.
“If you measure Bitcoin's success by the approval of the incumbent and obsolete industry it replaces, you're doing it wrong.”
SEC’s disapproval is confirmation that Bitcoin is a decentralized network
Two main arguments presented by the SEC in their disapproval of the COIN ETF were that the SEC can’t protect investors from losses made while trading Bitcoin and that the Bitcoin network can’t be surveilled as easily as others.
Since the Bitcoin network completely eliminates the possibility of recovering transactions or refunding payments, it forces users to be more responsible. On PayPal for instance, a centralized financial network, users can ask network moderators if they mistakenly sent incorrect transactions or processed payments to the wrong receiver. Within the Bitcoin network, no such administrative team exists and users are solely responsible for their money and transactions.
If the SEC needs to guarantee investors and traders with an insurance policy, which basically means that when Bitcoins are lost or stolen or mistraded, the SEC should be responsible for protecting investors from any losses, it is highly unlikely that a Bitcoin ETF will never be approved by the SEC.
The official document of the SEC read:
"As discussed further below, the Commission is disapproving this proposed rule change because it does not find the proposal to be consistent with Section 6(b)(5) of the Exchange Act, which requires, among other things, that the rules of a national securities exchange be designed to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices and to protect investors and the public interest."
The SEC nor any other government organizations shouldn’t be responsible for protecting investors from making independent financial decisions. Also, it is almost impractical to introduce a highly regulated market to Bitcoin if Bitcoin was designed from the start to replace regulated markets and inefficient financial systems.
Millionaires will be made. Come join us as we build to make millionaires in this revolution. Check the calendar for weekly webinars. Join me in The Coin Club. It cost you nothing. You are only depositing your Bitcoin, (to withdraw later), watching the system grow your coin and the commissions you also receive when others deposit into the system below you. Pretty cool.
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Yale Lecturer: Bitcoin is No Bubble, Long-Term Outlook is Bright
Is bitcoin’s historic rise headed for a major fall? Vikram Mansharamani, author of “Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst” and a lecturer at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Yale University, analyzed the likelihood of a new bitcoin bubble in his LinkedIn post. Using five “lenses” he has developed, he concluded that bitcoin’s long-term outlook is positive.
Mansharamani noted behavioral and informational issues distort price at any point in time, but such distortions tend to disappear since supply and demand markets are basically efficient.
This might not always be the case, he observed. Higher prices could actually increase demand, according to George Soros’ Theory of Reflexivity. Soros holds that prices can trend away from equilibrium, creating booms and busts.
Higher Price Raising Demand?
At present it is not clear if a higher bitcoin price has brought more demand, Mansharamani observed. On one hand, rising interest tends to drive up prices. At the same time, bitcoin trade volume has not increased with prices. While trade volume is not a good demand indicator, it does reflect activity. Lense 1: half a point.
Another bubble sign is the presence of leverage pushing higher prices. It is not clear if bitcoin prices are bubbly. There is no sign of leverage driving prices. There are no futures contracts enabling large exposure with little collateral or options providing de factor leverage.
The amount of debt supporting fiat currencies is an indicator. Traditional currencies are getting debased worldwide. Cryptocurrency offers a non-printable currency like gold. Lense 2: zero.
Psychology is another factor. When people assume the belief that “it’s different this time,” it’s time for buyers to beware. Asset prices never increase indefinitely. Bitcoin is no different in this regard.
Agreement exists that cryptocurrencies are in vogue and offer freedom from authoritarian manipulation. Mansharamani noted Peter Thiel has acknowledged that PayPal did not create a new currency, but a new payment system, whereas bitcoin has provided a new currency.
Bitcoin has its dedicated advocates. Internet analyst Henry Blodget and CNBC commentator Brian Kelly have delivered highly optimistic forecasts for bitcoin’s value. Lense 3: check.
Politics is yet another consideration, including both moral hazards and regulations. Regulations can distort prices of any asset by artificially raising or undermining supply or demand.
As an example, political considerations delivered regulations that encouraged people in the U.S. to buy houses. Buyers had Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to fall back on.
Bu there are no artificial government interventions supporting bitcoin prices. Regulators, for their part, are trying to discourage bitcoin. Governments, however, can’t do much more than temporarily impact the price of bitcoin, as was the case when China recently tried to control bitcoin trading.
There are no signs of moral hazards surrounding bitcoin. The people who lost millions when Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy did not get bailed out. Bitcoin market players are buying with open eyes and are aware of the risks. Lense 4: zero.
Bitcoin Not Yet Widely Held
In comparing investment hysteria to a spreading fever, the variables of concern include the infection rate, the removal rate and importantly, the portion of the population not yet affected. The last metric can be seen as the fuel available to keep the fever spreading. Once it runs out of victims, the fever’s over. New demand disappears and prices fall.
The number of potential bitcoin buyers is big. The market capitalization at $20 billion is minuscule compared to its potential. A recent Twitter poll found that 49% plan to buy bitcoin while 22% said they were “max long” on bitcoin or “curious.” Bitcoin is not as widely held as it could be. Lense 5: zero.
In reviewing all five factors above, Mansharamani said the likelihood of bitcoin being a certain bubble only registers 1.5 out of 5 possible points. The stage could be set for it to become a bubble, but it is not yet there.
Short-term price corrections are always possible, but the long-term outlook for blockchain enabled currencies is positive.
Millionaires will be made. Come join us as we build to make millionaires in this revolution. Check the calendar for weekly webinars. Join me in The Coin Club. It cost you nothing. You are only depositing Bitcoin, watching the system grow your coin and the commissions you also receive when others deposit into the system below you. Pretty cool.
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Bitcoin’s Big Problem: Transaction Delays Renew Blockchain Debate
Bitcoin is facing a major problem as the time it takes transactions to be processed has increased dramatically leading businesses to stop accepting the cryptocurrency and others to issue warnings that the problems could be terminal.
The problem is not something that has come out of the blue with those within the bitcoin community as well as researchers pointing to this looming issue for some time. The problem relates to how transactions are processed on the blockchain, the decentralized, distributed ledger technology that underpins bitcoin.
The average time it takes for a bitcoin transaction to be verified is now 43 minutes, and some transactions remain unverified forever. Some of the problem stems from the fact that anyone can add a fee to every bitcoin transaction, which bumps that transaction up in the queue, meaning that those who didn’t pay such a fee — or didn’t pay a sufficiently big fee — may be waiting hours and sometimes even days for a transaction to complete.
This is how it works. When someone uses bitcoin to pay for an item in a shop, that transaction needs to be verified on the blockchain. This is done by what are known as miners, individuals or groups who use massive computing power to solve increasingly complex mathematical equations to mine new bitcoins, which come in “blocks” and are mined about every 10 minutes. These blocks are used to record all transactions made on the bitcoin network, and have a maximum size of 1 megabyte (MB), meaning they can record just seven transactions per second at most.
To put this in context, Visa says its payment system processes 2,000 transactions per second on average and can handle up to 56,000 transactions per second if needed.
The result of the slowdown in transaction clearance rates has led some businesses to give up on bitcoin completely while others are recommending users to switch from bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies like litecoin.
The problem grew so large this week that at one point there were 40,000 bitcoin transactions waiting to be cleared — though at the time of writing, that figure has dropped to under 10,000. This drop has mirrored a drop in bitcoin’s dollar value this week, going from over $917 on Friday to under $863 yesterday, according to Gemini's tracker.
The bitcoin community has split into two distinct groups over the past years. The first group is known as Bitcoin Core, the network’s volunteer developers who want to change the way the signatures are stored on the blockchain rather than increase the size of the blocks. The other is known as Bitcoin Classic, a group comprised of developers and enthusiasts who propose the adoption of an alternative blockchain (incompatible with the original) that would increase the block size to 2 MB, a move it believes would increase user adoption.
Bitcoin’s architecture worked well when it was not widely used, but with over 200,000 bitcoin transactions processed every day and a market capitalization of over $14,588,828,445, the system is beginning to creak.
The problem was flagged up earlier this year by one of the main developers of bitcoin over the last five years, Gavin Andresen, who told MIT Technology Review at the time that the problem with bitcoin’s limited transaction rate "is urgent."
"Looking at the transaction volume on the bitcoin network, we need to address it within the next four or five months,” Andresen said.
Then last January, another core bitcoin developer Mike Hearn penned a widely read missive on Medium, which declared bitcoin a failure. “[Bitcoin] has failed because the community has failed,” Hearn said. “What was meant to be a new, decentralized form of money that lacked ‘systemically important institutions’ and ‘too big to fail’ has become something even worse: a system completely controlled by just a handful of people in China.”
These concerns were backed up last month with the release of a research paper from a large group of researchers mostly affiliated with Cornell University, titled “On Scaling Decentralized Blockchain.” The research suggests that bitcoin would need a complete redesign if it is to support a much larger network of users and transactions.
In a blog post this week, Andresen said that the block size limits are there to protect the network from attacks — and so far that method has been effective. He added that the current problems could be highlighting an underlying problem. “In my view, people are using the block size limit for something it was never meant to do — to influence how people use the bitcoin blockchain, forcing some users off the blockchain,” he said.
It is time for a new evolved enterprise solution.
Enter the impending launch of a new type blockchain that is a POS (Proof of Stake) in contrast to Bitcoins POW (Proof of Work). A truly exponentially expanded distribution that has no latency and gets even faster as it grows.
The technology is in the phone apps, not big cumbersome Mining Computer systems.
And this prevents the density of miners in one area or country as Bitcoin is mostly mined in China. And there are many reasons to have concerns in that regard.
A new type of Blockchain coin that delivers a wallet that transacts all fiat and crypto currency, comes with a VISA debit card and is part of the POS system, thereby earning you money on an ongoing basis.
MCC (My Crypto Coin)
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Bitcoin has had quite a month, rising from $725 to a high of $911 today.
Part of what is driving bitcoin's price movement is the financial turmoil in China. A weakening yuan in combination with increasingly strict capital controls in the country have driven investor's capital out of mainland china and into bitcoin.
Likewise, since the Chinese government considers bitcoin to be a commodity rather than a currency, it is impervious to foreign exchange regulators – meaning that it is nearly impossible for them to limit its upside.
But, in my opinion, China is only one of numerous reasons bitcoin has been rising.
The Trump effect as well and his embracement of the Blockchain apparent in his cabinet appointments as Kim Dotcom has also predicted Bitcoin to hit $2000 next year giving Trump much of the credit.
But, with it breaking out to all-time highs now, it begs the question, how high can it go?
Let's look at the total market cap compared to other money and sectors.
Bitcoin is currently near $14 billion of total market cap. If you multiply the total amount of bitcoins available (currently just above 16 million) by its current price you get its market cap near $14 billion.
At $14 billion, bitcoin has nearly the same market cap as silver.
But, when compared to Bill Gates, with a worth of $75 billion, bitcoin is still worth much less than the world's richest man.
When comparing it to companies, like Apple, the world's highest market cap company at $620 billion, bitcoin is still only worth 2% of the value of Apple.
And, compared to the total value of all gold in the world of $7.8 trillion, bitcoin is only 0.17% of that value.
Gold is likely the most similar item to compare bitcoin to. Like bitcoin, it is a store of wealth and considered by many to be money.
And given the ease of use of bitcoin and how digital the world is becoming, it is fair to posit that at some point bitcoin may be worth as much as gold.
If that were to happen the price of each bitcoin would have to be valued at $487,500.
Another item that could be compared to bitcoin is the value of all fiat money in the world. It is estimated, by the CIA Fact book, that there is about $28.6 trillion of coins, bank notes and bank deposits in the world.
If bitcoin were to replace all fiat currencies, something in which we speculate is certainly a possibility, the value of each bitcoin would be worth $1,787,500.
Will that happen anytime soon? Of course not. Could it happen? Absolutely.
So, if you think you have missed the boat on bitcoin by not buying it earlier… there are plenty of reasons to think that it hasn't even begun yet.
Will Latency Slow Bitcoin Rise
Yes bitcoin has doubled in value over the past year, however as more people turn to bitcoin then more miners are required to ensure transactions are completed quickly. China has a large share in mining pools, however in the past months some of them have been shut down for stealing electricity to power the computers required to solve the mathematics which builds blocks in the blockchain. the longer it takes to produce blocks the slower the transaction becomes.
There has been talk of fork to update the blockchain but there is no consences for this. Implimentation might also prove challenging due to its widespread distribution which perversly adds to it security.
Waiting in the wings is a new coin Mycryptocoin (MCC), which brings together the best of bitcoin and ether, but using Proof Of Stake(POS) to replace mining as all coins will be allocated at launch.
Smart contract and application can be run on the blockchain. Owners walletscan hold MCC and these can be bought and sold within the wallets with links to all other ccyptocurrencies, bank accounts, cards and other payments systems such as paypal. Truly a one stop wallet complete with its own Visa card.
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Trump Picks Cryptocurrency and Blockchain
Advocate as Budget Chief
It seems the election of Donald Trump could spell great news for American blockchain startups and cryptocurrency users. President-elect Trump has added to his cabinet an active and vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies and blockchain which means that there will be at least one powerful voice in the US government that will resist further efforts to legislate the technology into oblivion.
Trump picked Congressman Mick Mulvaney, Tea Party Republican, as his administration’s Director of Office of Management and Budget. He is considered a staunch fiscal conservative that wishes to drastically limit the federal government’s spending on social programs.
Just this September he was among the founders of the bipartisan Blockchain Caucus. Commonly called the Bitcoin Caucus by American media, it is meant to help congressmen stay up to speed on cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies, and develop policies that advance them.
“Blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize the financial services industry, the U.S. economy and the delivery of government services, and I am proud to be involved with this initiative,” Mulvaney said in a statement back then.
Mulvaney is also a supporter of Coin Center, a non-profit research and advocacy center focused on public policy issues facing cryptocurrency technologies, which raised over $1 million earlier this year.
“For the past two years we have worked with Representatives Mulvaney and Polis to educate their colleagues through briefings and other events, and the new Congressional Blockchain Caucus will be a wonderful new platform to continue these efforts,” Jerry Brito, executive director of Coin Center said at the time. “Their forward-thinking leadership on blockchain technology in Congress is unmatched.”
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Bitcoin Can Rise to $2000 in January 2017
The Confirming Trends
Trump’s ascendancy will be confirmed in January – a time in which Kim Dotcom hopes to launch his Megaupload 2.0.
Saxo’s projected three-fold increase in the current price of the digital currency – currently at $760 – is similar to Dotcom’s prediction that Megaupload and its potential Bitcoin wallet Bitcache system could take the price of Bitcoin to $2000, based on the claim that the file sharing product would overcome Bitcoin’s scaling problems.
The anonymous cloud sharing, anti-surveillance, video hosting, Bitcoin-caching online service, that will serve the equivalent to the population of the Philippines (approximately 103 mln), is slated for a release in late January. Let’s hope he can pull it off.
China to exceed growth expectations
On Dec. 1, China restricted the importation of gold in order to prevent capital leaving the country. The country still plans to regulate the importation of gold to avoid the Chinese yuan from leaving the country.
As a huge determinant of the eventual quasi-synchronization in price between Bitcoin and the yuan, the Chinese trading volume will correlate with the price of Bitcoin in the coming weeks even as the Chinese central bank and authorities struggle to recover the value of the yuan which has fallen 5.8 percent against the dollar already this year.
Saxo Bank notes that China is expected to exceed growth expectations in the coming years, adding that the country’s current slowdown has been predictable due to elevated investment levels of around 50 percent of GDP while total debt has swollen to an unsustainable 237 percent of GDP.
Through massive stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, and by opening up capital markets even more, the country successfully steers a transition to consumption-intensive growth surpassing current expectations and reaching eight percent growth in 2017.
India is ready for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price increased following the recent demonetization of the Indian rupee. Following this, there were suggestions that the government could be planning a ban on the importation of gold as the precious metal reached two-year highs in November. This, coupled with the growing awareness of Bitcoin in the world’s second most populated country and the Indian government's resolve to work on Bitcoin and the Blockchain framework before 2018, could push it to a tipping point.
In its Payment and Settlement Systems in India: Vision-2018, the Reserve Bank of India notes that it will be monitoring framework for new technologies/innovations in order to “ensure that regulations keep pace with the developments in technology impacting the payment space, the global level developments in technology such as distributed ledgers, Blockchain etc. will be monitored and regulatory framework, as required, will be put in place.”
This will improve the country’s payments ecosystem, it says, which has been evolving dynamically with the advancements and innovations taking place, particularly in the area of FinTech.
In a chat with Cointelegraph, a spokesperson for Zebpay agrees that there's been no talk of Bitcoin without the mention of India lately and this will continue for a little longer because Bitcoins are the new game changers in the era of cashless economy offering billions of Indians the ability to go cashless using digital currencies.
The spokesperson says: “We skipped the landline generation and have a modern mobile phone infrastructure. Similarly, India has the potential to skip the plastic money generation and build a modern financial infrastructure on this revolutionary technology.”
For Coinsecure CEO Mohit Kalra, India is rising to Bitcoin and 2017 seems promising for its adoption and usage.
Read more at: The CoinTelegraph
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P.S. At least move some of your money into Bitcoin. Here is a comprehensive list of Bitcoin exchanges. This is a new shift, much like the Internet. Do not reject this move, rather embrace it. The List: